Swiss bank UBS has raised its mid-2026 target for gold to US $4,500 per ounce, up from a prior forecast of $4,200. The bank says the supporting factors behind gold’s remarkable 2025 run remain firmly in place and see further upside ahead.
What’s Driving UBS’s Bullish Call
UBS strategists led by Wayne Gordon cited several major themes:
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Expectations of upcoming rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and lower real interest rates.
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Persisting geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, which increase safe-haven demand for gold.
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Strong ongoing demand from central banks and ETFs for gold, underscoring it as a key portfolio hedge.
UBS also raised its upside scenario for gold to US $4,900 per ounce if political or financial risks materialize. Meanwhile, the firm kept its downside case at US $3,700 per ounce if policy tightens and demand weakens.
Why This Matters for Investors
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Gold recently crossed—and held—above the US $4,000 mark, marking one of its strongest years in decades. UBS’s new target implies significant further upside from current levels.
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By raising its target, UBS is sending a strong signal that gold is no longer just a defensive asset but could play a central role in portfolios as monetary and fiscal risks grow.
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Investors should pay attention: if gold is rising based on structural demand shifts (central banks, global reserve diversification), then gold is becoming strategic, not just speculative.
What Could Check the Rally
UBS points out two key risks:
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A more hawkish Federal Reserve than expected—if rate cuts are delayed or reversed, gold may underperform.
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Potential large-scale gold sales by central banks, which could temporarily shift supply dynamics and dampen price gains.
Bottom Line
UBS’s revision boosts the argument that gold remains a critical asset amid uncertainty. For portfolio builders, this means reviewing not just whether to own gold, but how much to own and what role it plays—whether that’s protection, diversification, or upside participation. The full rally isn’t guaranteed, but the setup is clearly more compelling than it was.