Goldman Sachs is calling it: among rare earth miners, one stands out. The firm initiated coverage on MP Materials Corporation (ticker: MP) with a Buy rating and a price target of $77, citing the company’s strategic deals and upside potential. In contrast, Goldman labeled another player, Ramaco Resources, a Sell, citing development risk.
Why MP Materials Is the Pick
1. Backing from the U.S. Government & Defense Sector
MP secured a high-profile contract with the U.S. Department of Defense. The deal provides guaranteed demand and aligns with Washington’s push to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earth supply chains.
2. Strong Growth Already Underway
MP has enjoyed sharp gains in 2025, reflecting growing optimism around scaling operations and demand for rare earth magnets used in EVs, wind turbines, electronics, and defense hardware.
3. Strategic Advantage in a China-Dominated Market
Goldman analysts argue that challenging China’s dominance in rare earths will take time—perhaps a decade—but firms like MP are among the few positioned to fill the gap.
Why Ramaco Got the Cold Shoulder
Goldman took a very different view of Ramaco Resources. Ramaco’s Brook Mine in Wyoming is still undeveloped with lower ore grades and no current rare earth production. The risk of execution failure, for Goldman, outweighs upside potential.
Implications for Gold & the Dollar
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Gold: When analysts pour money into rare earths, it underscores macro uncertainty and supply concerns in critical metals. That often pushes investors into safe-haven assets like gold—especially when supply of key materials is constrained.
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U.S. Dollar: If MP’s domestic positioning succeeds, it strengthens the narrative that the U.S. can secure its own strategic raw materials. That might reduce downward pressure on the dollar from external trade deficits and geopolitical risk premiums.
Takeaway for Investors
If you believe the world is actively decoupling from China’s grip on rare earths, MP Materials may be one of the better plays to ride that shift. But don’t get carried away:
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Execution risk is real: scaling mining, refining, and magnet production is capital-intensive and complex.
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Valuations are already lofty, so much of the upside may be baked in.
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Downside risk is magnified if geopolitical dynamics change, or if supply constraints ease.
In short: Goldman is betting MP can deliver. Now it’s time to watch whether the real world can deliver too.