Here’s what Goldman Sachs is saying now — and why central banks are driving gold higher:
Why Goldman Is So Bullish on Gold
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Goldman Sachs expects central banks to keep gobbling up gold — a trend they don’t see slowing anytime soon.
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In its latest analysis, Goldman raised its long-term gold price target to $4,900/oz by the end of 2026, fueled by this steady buying.
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The firm sees two key drivers:
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Reserve diversification — many central banks are shifting away from traditional reserve assets (like U.S. Treasuries) and increasing their gold stash.
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ETF inflows — as interest rates potentially ease, Goldman believes gold ETFs will become more attractive to private and institutional investors.
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Recent Forecast Tweaks: Goldman’s Price Target Climbing
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Goldman’s year-end 2025 gold target has increased from $2,890 to $3,100/oz.
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If risk stays high (e.g., geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty), they think gold could hit $3,300/oz.
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Over the medium term, Goldman projects $4,000/oz by mid-2026 under its base case.
What’s Fueling This Demand
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Central bank behavior is shifting structurally. Goldman argues that many emerging-market central banks remain under-allocated in gold and are increasingly viewing it as a strategic reserve asset.
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Political and economic risk is pushing demand. Rising debt, geopolitical friction, and concerns about dollar dominance are pushing central banks to secure gold as a hedge.
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Macro backstop for ETFs. With potential rate cuts on the horizon, non-yielding gold becomes more attractive, helping drive ETF demand.
The Big Picture — What This Means for Investors
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Gold is no longer just an emergency hedge — it’s becoming a core asset.
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Long-term investors may benefit if they lean into Goldman’s $4,900/oz by 2026 call.
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Be ready for volatility: Even with a bullish trend, short-term pullbacks are possible, especially if speculative flows or ETF demand wobble.
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Keep an eye on central bank behavior: If buying stays strong, it could reshape gold’s role in portfolios for years.